“Russian strategic nuclear forces exercise appears to be scheduled for this week,” Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said on Twitter.
“Probably annual exercise Grom with ICBM, SLBM, bomber launches. Potentially also some non-strategic nuclear force activities. Coinciding with NATO nuke exercise Steadfast Noon,” he said.
“Grom”—which means “thunder”—could potentially include test launches of nuclear missiles.
While the exercises have not been officially confirmed by Russia, several U.S. officials said that they are expected to take place before the end of the month.
“We anticipate the exercise will span several days. It’ll include actions within the normal bounds of what Russia has done in the past. It’ll include live missile launches and a deployment of strategic assets,” John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council, told reporters on October 13.
Newsweek has contacted Kristensen for further comment.
While these drills are planned yearly, Western officials will be watching the Russian exercises carefully to make sure there are no atypical movements of Moscow’s nuclear weapons amid high tensions over the war in Ukraine.
President Vladimir Putin is experiencing setbacks on the battlefield in Ukraine and there is fear that he might resort to nuclear weapons if the Russian army fails to make more progress.
Putin said in September that “this is not a bluff” when talking about resorting to nuclear weapons to defend Russia’s “territorial integrity.”
The NATO annual “Steadfast Noon” drill began on October 17, with training flights taking place in Belgian airspace, as well as over the North Sea and Britain. The drills will go on until October 30.
The operation involves up to 60 aircraft, including fighter jets, surveillance and refueling aircraft, as well as long-range B-52 bombers from the U.S., NATO said.
No live weapons will be used, the 30-state alliance has said.
NATO stressed that the “routine, recurring training activity” was planned before Moscow invaded Ukraine and is not linked to the conflict.
“Steadfast Noon” is hosted by a different NATO ally each year.
On Monday, Russia accused Ukraine of producing a nuclear weapon, despite Ukraine having giving up its nuclear stockpile in 1994 under the Budapest Memorandum.
Last week, Russia accused Ukraine of developing a “dirty bomb”—a mixture of explosives and radioactive powder or pellets, as part of “a false flag attack” on its own territory to blame on Moscow and escalate the conflict.
Ukrainian and Western officials have denounced these claims of a dirty bomb as false and a pretext for further Russian escalation.
“Russia has accused others for things they intend to do themselves. So we need to monitor closely what Russia now do and they must know that use of a dirty bomb, or a radiological bomb, is a serious escalation,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told Sky News.
