The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released a new report on Thursday detailing the latest information on the conflict in Ukraine.
One of the “key takeaways” is that the ISW says “Russian troops are likely establishing defensive positions in upper Kherson Oblast (region) following the collapse of the Russian line in north east Kherson.”
This follows on from significant land-grabs that Ukraine was able to make, with one animated map, circulating on social media, showing how far back Ukrainian forces pushed Russian troops in only four hours, between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. on Tuesday.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the advance by his forces that same night and praised their efforts.
“The Ukrainian army is advancing in quite a rapid and powerful manner in the south of the country within the context of the current defense operation,” he said. “This week alone, since the Russian pseudo-referendum, dozens of population centers have been liberated.
“These are in Kherson, Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions all together,” Zelensky added.
The ISW report said that satellite imagery, dated October 3 and 4, showed Russian trench lines and radar deflector systems in the Beryslav-Nova Kakhovka area.
“[This] would suggest Russian troops are falling back to reinforce defensive positions in central Kherson Oblast in the face of recent Ukrainian advances in northeast Kherson Oblast,” the report said.
“Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces largely focused on regrouping in northern Kherson Oblast and did not conduct ground attacks on October 6.
“The Russian MoD echoed claims made by some milbloggers (military bloggers) that Ukrainian troops conducted limited ground attacks to break through new Russian defensive lines in northern Kherson, particularly from Piatykhatky (about 35km (21.7 miles) south of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border).”
Dr. Marina Miron, a research fellow in the Defense Studies Department’s Center for Military Ethics at King’s College London, told Newsweek about what these developments mean overall.
“The idea behind the Russian retreat in Kherson Oblast was based on the idea that they would shorten the line of contact by about half, according to some Russian accounts,” Miron said.
“Given that they do not have enough troops right now to build echeloned defense, they will have to improvise until reinforcements arrive. According to the Russian sources, this was not a collapse, but rather a coordinated ‘retreat’ to ensure they do not suffer any major casualties.”
Miron said how Russian media has attempted to portray their retreat and how the conflict in the region is about to intensify.
“Russian sides claim that those territories that were left have no strategic importance. Often they are referred to as empty fields and villages,” she added.
“It is indeed expected that the Ukrainian forces try to move towards Kherson – so the so-called battle for Kherson is about to begin.
“That said, it seems like the Ukrainian forces might be faced with weather issues, which make it more favourable for conductive defensive operations.”
Newsweek has contacted Russia and Ukraine’s ministries of foreign affairs for comment.
