During a Russian TV segment posted on Thursday by BBC Monitoring reporter Francis Scarr, host Vladimir Solovyov asked the officer on the show Solovyov Live about the “idea” of using tactical nuclear weapons. The officer, whose name wasn’t translated and included in the video’s subtitles, talked about how meteorological conditions might affect the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
“Well, I have a favorable view on that! You know, in the 2000s, we did research in that area and I can tell you that in certain hydrometeorological parameters of atmosphere and land mass, hydrology and land mass, the efficacy of a tactical nuclear weapon can be increased at least 6- to 8-fold,” the officer said. “It’s a very serious topic and of course from the point of view of the weather factor, it’s significant too.”
The officer noted that using tactical nuclear weapons could “fundamentally change the tide of battle.” Russia has struggled in the 10-month-old war, a surprise to many given its military superiority, and some have speculated that the risk of using nuclear weapons increases as Russia faces more setbacks.
Russian military blogger Igor Girkin said this month that tactical nuclear weapons should be used by Russia, but against NATO, not Ukraine.
Girkin, who is also known as Igor Strelkov, is a former agent with Russia’s FSB security services and had a role in Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. He was asked during a recent interview about using nuclear weapons in Russia’s war with Ukraine.
“I believe that if we use nuclear weapons first, we will soon get a retaliatory strike,” he said. “I believe that we should use tactical nuclear weapons.”
Girkin has criticized the way Russian forces have fought in Ukraine and highlighted mistakes made in tactics and mobilization. He recently said that Ukraine had already dealt Russia a “strategic defeat.”
Though Western countries are concerned that Russia might use nuclear weapons, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in late October that there was “no need” to employ them.
The use of nuclear weapons has been repeatedly discussed on Russian state TV, but some experts expressed doubt that Putin would use them and questioned the strategic gain of doing so.
James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Newsweek in November how Russia could use nuclear weapons in Ukraine but added that it is “unlikely.”
He said that for increasing force by using nuclear weapons, there has to be an underground nuclear test in Russia, an above-ground nuclear test in Russia or a demonstration shot over international waters such as the Black Sea. Then there would be a demonstration shot over a sparsely inhabited part of Ukraine and using it against Ukrainian forces.
“I don’t claim to know which of these is most likely,” he said. “Even more escalatory options are possible. But I think they’re substantially less likely for first use.”
Newsweek reached out to the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry for comment.
